Scenarios of Perception and Reaction to Adaptation

Duration: 01.11.2010 - 01.10.2013

Scenarios of the spreading of changed patterns of action and attitude against the background of climate change

Initial situation
Without changes to social and cultural practice the challenges associated with climate change will remain unresolved. For this reason empirical investigations are fundamental to give answers to the question of how initially locally restricted innovative impulses become socially significant and under which framework conditions they can quickly spread. These two aspects are at the heart of the "SPREAD" project, which considers the successful diffusion of socio-technological innovations. Amongst other aspects the social, economic and energy policy dynamic of the Schönau Power Supply (EWS) and that of solar power plants financed by citizens is analysed and compared under various hypotheses in order to arrive at an initial model of cultural change potentials against the background of climate change.

Project goals
In this project, with the help of a wide set of methods - e.g. qualitative interviews, a survey on attitude patterns and area-related population and lifestyle data (including the projection of these up until 2020) - computer simulations can be developed with regard to the patterns of diffusion of changed action in Germany.
From the scenarios, results on the scope and limits of possible cultural adaptation processes are expected. In addition this project should provide a contribution to social science scenario development. A comprehensive empirical investigation (goal 1) and subsequently a multi-agent simulation of scenarios of social adaptation processes, based on the empirically found individual and further demographic economic data, will be carried out (goal 2).

Project coordination
Prof. Dr. Andreas Ernst
Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR)
University of Kassel
Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3
34109 Kassel, Germany
E-Mail: ernst@usf.uni-kassel.de
http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/cesr

Research partner
Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities  (KWI) (Prof. Dr. Harald Welzer)

Communal partner
Schönau Electricity Company (EWS)